Adaptive Systemic Integrity Framework
Abstract
ASIF provides a general mathematical framework for measuring systemic integrity across heterogeneous complex systems. The framework establishes a two-dimensional integrity space defined by structural integrity (SII) and systemic coherence (SCI), enabling regime classification and early-warning detection of critical transitions.
Core Constructs
ASIF operates on two primary dimensions:
SII — Structural Integrity Index
Measures structural coherence relative to historical equilibrium. Captures multi-dimensional deviations in system architecture.
SCI — System Coherence Index
Quantifies incoherence — the degree of anomalous, divergent behavior among system components.
Regime Classification
Stable System
SII > 70, SCI < 30
Transitional Stability
SII > 50, SCI < 50
Complex Regime
Mixed signals
Systemic Decoupling
SII < 50, SCI > 50
Critical Regime
SII < 30, SCI > 70
Testable Predictions
Rising SCI preceding SII decline by 2–8 weeks constitutes an early-warning signal.
Critical Slowing Down signatures (variance increase, autocorrelation increase) should be detectable near regime transitions.
The SII/SCI divergence metric should achieve AUC ≥ 0.75 for crisis prediction 4 weeks ahead.
Applications
ASIF has been applied to financial markets (via IRSA + FSAI*) and is under development for healthcare and critical infrastructure domains. The framework is designed for domain-agnostic instantiation with domain-specific indicator sets.